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EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
This report is an update of the previous trend scenarios, such as the 'European energy and transport - Trends to 2030' published in 2003 and its 2005 and 2007 updates. Two scenarios, the Baseline 2009 (finalised in December 2009) and the Reference scenario (April 2010) are presented.
The economic context has dramatically changed since the 2007 Baseline scenario. In autumn 2008 the EU and the global economy entered the steepest downturn on record since the 1930s. The energy intensive industries experienced considerable drops in their production, while energy and electricity demand displayed negative rates of change in 2009.
The economic analysts, including official bodies such as the IMF, OECD and European Commission (DG ECFIN), published gloomy forecasts about economic activity and growth. Their medium term and sometimes long term economic outlooks have been drastically revised compared to 2007, in order to reflect significantly lower economic growth.
In addition, legislation that will significantly affect energy demand and production has been adopted at both the EU (i.e. the Climate and Energy Package adopted in December 2008 and several energy efficiency measures adopted in 2008 and 2009) and the national levels. Both the crisis and the new legislation made imperative the conception of a new energy baseline scenario.
The report was commissioned by Directorate General for Energy in collaboration with Directorate General for Climate Action and Directorate General for Mobility and Transport.
Download the report (size: 5.5Mb)
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